A Great Diversifier to Hi-Tech

Quiz!

Which is the best diversifier for US tech stocks?

  1. Cash
  2. Bonds
  3. US Value Stocks
  4. Emerging Markets Stocks
  5. Emerging Markets Value Stocks
  6. Bitcoin

A Great Diversifier to Hi-Tech

If you work in hi-tech, your financial position could be greatly influenced by the hi-tech cycle. Your income comes from hi-tech. In addition, If you have any stock options, stock grants or actual stocks of your company, they all depend on hi-tech. Even if you do not work in hi-tech, but most of your clients do, you are very dependent on this sector. When constructing your investment portfolio, it is worth being aware of this. It may be tough to diversify, if you believe that the strong run of hi-tech in recent years will never stop. To understand how a reversal is possible, note that valuations (price/book) of tech stocks surged in the past 10 years. This means that people are paying substantially more (price) for company values (book). This is in contrast to company values (book values) improving as much as the price gains, leading the price/book to stay flat over these years.

You may be discouraged by the fact that interest rates are low and expected to go up, and inflation has spiked. Commonly discussed candidates for moderating the risk of expensive tech stocks, including bonds and cash, can get hurt by rising interest rates and inflation.

There is a solution that doesn’t require accepting the typical low returns of bonds and cash, and without giving up the liquidity of stocks. This solution is especially helpful when interest rates and inflation go up. The solution is Value stocks, especially in other countries. When US tech stocks declined for over 10 years starting in 2000, Emerging Markets Value stocks grew substantially. This occurred at a time of extreme valuations for tech stocks, just like we are experiencing today. So, while any investor should be cautious of a concentration in high-tech stocks today, if your income is tied to hi-tech, you have a good diversifier available now.

Note that diversified Emerging Markets Value funds already have an allocation to high-tech stocks (while emphasizing lower valuations than typical), so they don’t require a separate allocation to high-tech.

Quiz Answer:

Which is the best diversifier for US tech stocks?

  1. Cash
  2. Bonds
  3. US Value Stocks
  4. Emerging Markets Stocks
  5. Emerging Markets Value Stocks [Correct Answer]
  6. Bitcoin

Explanations:

  1. Cash offers zero volatility, and seems perfectly safe. The issue is that it loses money to inflation. With a modest 3% inflation rate, you lose 50% every 24 years.
  2. Bonds offer low volatility, at a price of low returns. While they may seem compelling, they can decline when interest rates go up, and they can lose value relative to inflation.
  3. US Value Stocks are a good diversifier given that they are helped by rising interest rates and inflation, while tech stocks tend to get hurt by those. They are still subject to US-specific country risks, so are not the best.
  4. Emerging Markets Stocks diversify the US-specific country risk, but there is still better!
  5. Emerging Markets Value Stocks diversify the US-specific country risk, and are also typically helped by rising interest rates and inflation, while tech stocks tend to get hurt by those.
  6. Bitcoin is a currency, with no expected positive returns. But, it is far worse than cash, because it is extremely volatile. In addition, people were drawn to it in recent years given the high past returns, similar to tech-stocks. As seen recently, they can experience declines together with tech stocks. This is opposite of what some speculated, thinking that it may be a good inflation hedge.
Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data

2 Reasons I don’t Invest in Bitcoin

Quiz!

What are good reasons to invest in Bitcoin? (There may be multiple answers.)

  1. It is a high-growth investment with low correlation to other investments.
  2. High growth as its adoption grows.
  3. Low transaction costs.
  4. Fast transfers.
  5. Free from government control.

2 Reasons I don’t Invest in Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a digital currency / cryptocurrency with many benefits over traditional currencies. This article doesn’t discuss these great benefits, but instead brings up reasons to not hold bitcoin and many other digital currencies for investment.

  1. Just like any other currency, Bitcoin doesn’t generate any value. There are plenty of investments that do generate value, including stocks (companies) and real estate.
  2. While Bitcoin has benefits over traditional currencies, many countries are working on digital currencies with values tied to their traditional currencies. These currencies will have the benefits of digital currencies with an additional big benefit over Bitcoin: central banks can control the supply of currencies, helping stabilize economies, and preventing recessions such as 2008 from turning into devastating depressions. This could stop Bitcoin from reaching the wide adoption that some people anticipate.

Bitcoin played a big role in learning about digital currencies, and designing digital currencies with values tied to traditional currencies. Yet, as an investment, there is nothing that gives me confidence that it won’t permanently decline by 50%, 90% or 99%, as government backed digital currencies come out.

Quiz Answer:

What are good reasons to invest in Bitcoin? (There may be multiple answers.)

  1. It is a high-growth investment with low correlation to other investments.
  2. High growth as its adoption grows.
  3. Low transaction costs.
  4. Fast transfers.
  5. Free from government control.

None of the answers is correct. Specifically:

  1. Bitcoin has historically been a high-growth investment with low correlation to other investments, but there are good reasons to expect the growth to be reversed into sharp declines, once digital currencies that are tied to traditional currencies come out. Read this month’s article to learn more.
  2. You can expect adoption to dramatically shrink once there are government issued digital currencies, that have additional benefits.
  3. Low transaction costs are a benefit of Bitcoin over traditional currencies, but not over traditional digital currencies.
  4. Same as #3.
  5. Bitcoin is currently free from government control, providing a benefit for certain uses including some illegal activities, but that is not a reason to hold them as an investment.
Disclosures Including Backtested Performance Data